Part 5: Research Programme and Open Problems¶
Status: Current reader chapter.
The repository now maintains 13 open problems. They do not all have the same maturity. Some ask for better definitions; some can be tested in the current lab; others require external data or mathematics beyond the present model.
Near-term empirical work¶
1. Process identification under declared access¶
The inverse benchmark should continue replacing broad hardness language with measurable dependencies: model-class size, trace coverage, noise, interventions, compute budget, and target equivalence. The next useful result is not “inversion is hard,” but a curve that states when a particular recovery target becomes identifiable or decision-useful.
2. Real-model identity instruments¶
The Agentic Identity Suite still uses mock embeddings and constructed agents. A real-model study needs preregistered prompts, repeated sampling, held-out perturbations, matched adaptive baselines, and a clear statement of what the metric can and cannot identify. Behavioral persistence must not be renamed consciousness or inner identity.
3. Exp8 controls¶
The adaptive-filter experiment needs oracle and alternative adaptive baselines, uncertainty intervals, and an explicit bias model. Its present result shows that one online process-noise estimator improves tracking after a volatility change. It does not yet isolate a general “reflexive depth” variable or prove sole-channel bias is fundamentally unidentifiable.
4. From useful support to retained support¶
Benchmark v1.10 shows a designed spare-capacity mechanism helping under sparse shocks. v1.11 shows that the costly support trait is selected downward in its population model even while the evolved network remains acutely useful. Partner choice, conditional reciprocity, and assortment are the next discriminating mechanisms. The aim is to locate the missing conditions, not force a positive result.
Foundational and conceptual work¶
5. Minimality of the process foundation¶
The current basis uses standard Borel interfaces and Markov kernels. It should be challenged by weaker relational foundations, non-probabilistic nondeterminism, quantum process theories, and state representations that expose memory rather than hiding it.
6. Identity as test-relative persistence¶
The project needs explicit test families for persons, AI systems, organizations, and cultures. Recurrent practice is one candidate source of stability, but refusal, repair, role change, and coercion must remain visible. “Identity is stable ritual” is a working hypothesis, not an exhaustive definition.
7. Cooperative intelligence¶
The separatrix essay proposes that structured difference can enlarge the reachable solution set. A minimal experiment must compare genuine cross-participant revision against independent work, simple aggregation, and coordination overhead. Verification, veto, responsibility, and authorship must remain attributable.
External validation¶
The viability models require calibration against domains where their variables can actually be measured. Civilizational metaphors do not count as calibration. A useful external study would state the mapping before observing outcomes, compare it with simpler baselines, and publish negative results.
Likewise, the project needs review from specialists in dynamical systems, statistics, control, cognitive science, organizational research, anthropology, and philosophy of mind. Internal consistency is necessary, not external validation.
What narrative contributes¶
Fiction and the House can expose consequences, missing perspectives, and lived tensions that a formal model suppresses. They can generate questions and stress-test designs. They cannot confirm a mathematical or empirical claim.
The research programme succeeds if its claims become smaller, clearer, and easier to disprove—not if every open question is absorbed into one theory.